Source: Probabilistic Shifts

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SolSeed archive migration
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Create maintainable Markdown archive revision
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### Discussion at [Sol 2009](/Sol_2009)
#### Participants
- [Arthur Brock](/Arthur_Brock)
- [Paul Krafel](/Paul_Krafel)
- [Alysia Krafel](/Alysia_Krafel)
- [Brandon CS Sanders](/Brandon_CS_Sanders)
- [Ben Sibelman](/Ben_Sibelman)

#### Summary
*These notes start in the middle of the session*

- A probabilistic shift is an action that doesn't have precisely knowable outcomes
  - Like moving pegs in [Pachinko](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachinko) or the similar [probability demonstration device](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galton_board) that creates a bell curve made of balls)
  - Making something on the edge of the bell curve appear possible to others will draw in allies

#### Stream flow metaphor from [The Upward Spiral](/The_Upward_Spiral)
- Water moving slowly vs. quickly
  - Slow movement means some water soaks into the ground rather than eroding a gully deeper
  - Much of the water then re-evaporates and never makes it to the bottom of the gully
  - This is equivalent to a situation where everyone involved in a project contributes creatively rather than a few leaders "letting the rest of the creativity run down the slope and leave"
    - Alysia: This is hard because, having created a "space" for your project or group, it's hard to let others form their own creative "bubbles" inside it

#### Examples
- Chrysalis Charter School tried a model where each teacher autonomously set their budget, so that "money flowed from the bottom up"
  - Didn't work, now a teacher's co-op
- [AboutUs](http://aboutus.org) is becoming more hierarchical in order to move faster with its venture capital
  - By contrast, [Wikipedia](http://wikipedia.org) grew more slowly/organically with its nonhierarchical model
- Organization of information on the Internet
  - Skill that kids need to learn
  - Often you don't know exactly what you're looking for
  - Supersites index a bunch of sites, then other sites index the supersites: similar to how nature is organized